GH¢46.1bn trade surplus masks real deficit — GSS

Ghana’s GH¢46.1 billion trade surplus in the first quarter of 2026 masked a deficit when trade is measured in real terms, highlighting the extent to which higher export prices — particularly for gold — rather than increased volumes are supporting the country’s external position, the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) said.

The provisional trade data show exports of GH¢110.3 billion against imports of GH¢64.2 billion in nominal terms, resulting in a US$4.3 billion surplus.

The surplus, however, narrowed marginally from GH¢47.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

When adjusted for price changes using the newly introduced Export and Import Unit Value Indices, the picture was markedly different. Real exports were valued at GH¢28.1 billion, compared with real imports of GH¢34.3 billion, producing a trade deficit.

The divergence indicates that the headline surplus was significantly supported by price movements rather than an expansion in the physical volume of goods traded. Real exports fell 6.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 10.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, while real imports increased on both measures, with annual growth reaching 37.3 percent.

The price data reinforce the contrast. Ghana’s export Unit Value Index rose 5 percent year-on-year and 8.5 percent quarter-on-quarter to 392.6 in the first quarter, while the import index fell 26.6 percent year-on-year and 3.2 percent quarter-on-quarter to 187.3.

Gold was the main contributor to the increase in export prices. Gold export prices rose 15.1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 24.7 percent year-on-year, according to the GSS. Gold bullion generated GH¢63.7 billion, or 57.7 percent of total exports, although its share fell from 67.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The concentration of Ghana’s export base remains a key vulnerability. The five largest export products accounted for 86.5 percent of total exports, led by gold, cocoa beans, cashew nuts, crude petroleum and cocoa paste. Gold alone generated more than four times the value of the next-largest export, cocoa beans, which contributed GH¢12.9 billion.

Cocoa provided a stronger diversification signal, with cocoa beans and related products increasing their share of exports to 16.6 percent from 13.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Cocoa exports reached US$1.69 billion in the first quarter, 5 percent higher than a year earlier and well above the US$1.03 billion average for the first quarters of 2023 to 2025.

But the composition of cocoa exports also points to a persistent value-addition gap. The GSS said raw cocoa beans continue to account for the dominant share of cocoa exports, while processed products contribute relatively little.

Source: Business & Financial Times