Economy out of the valley, not yet on the plateau

The domestic macroeconomic recovery is real and hard-won, but the task of converting stability into durable, broad-based growth is only beginning.

That was the broad consensus at the opening session of The Money Summit 2026 (TMS 2026), where senior figures from across the financial sector argued that while Ghana has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability after a difficult adjustment period, significant structural weaknesses continue to threaten the recovery’s sustainability.

The summit, organised by Business & Financial Times under the theme ‘Building Trust, Capital and Stability for Ghana’s Economic Future’, saw a convergence of principal policymakers, bankers, investors and development finance practitioners to assess the country’s economic outlook.

Setting the tone for discussion, Matilda Asante-Asiedu, Second Deputy Governor-Bank of Ghana, outlined what she described as clear evidence of economic stabilisation. Inflation has fallen from 23.8 percent at the end of 2024 to 3.4 percent as of April 2026, marking sixteen consecutive months without an increase.

The monetary policy rate has declined from 27 percent to 14 percent, the benchmark 91-day Treasury bill rate has fallen from 28 percent to below 5 percent and average lending rates have eased from around 30 percent to approximately 16 percent. Gross international reserves have also increased from US$9billion to US$14billion, supported largely by strong gold export earnings.

However, she cautioned that stabilisation should not be mistaken for permanence. “Stability that’s secured is different from stability that’s sustained,” she said, pointing to geopolitical tensions, higher global oil prices and rising energy costs which she noted are running around 40 percent above budget projections due to the Iran-US conflict.

Mrs. Asante-Asiedu acknowledged that given the sharp decline in inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee might ordinarily have reduced rates further. However, she said the decision to maintain the policy rate at 14 percent reflects the need to anchor expectations and preserve confidence in the recovery.

“We are also looking forward and anchoring expectations and, on the basis of that, we stay in the race,” she said.

She also addressed transitioning from the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility programme to the Policy Coordinating Instrument (PCI), describing it as a shift that places greater responsibility on domestic policymakers.

“Our credibility now rests entirely on the quality and consistency of our policies. The PCI commits us, not behind closed doors but in the open, to the discipline which delivered these gains and raises the cost ever so high for us if we dare to abandon that discipline,” she said.

On credit creation, the Deputy Governor acknowledged that private-sector lending remains shallow despite recent improvements. “A stable economy that does not lend to its productive sectors only does half the job,” she said.

She highlighted several initiatives aimed at expanding access to finance, including an alternative credit-scoring project with the International Finance Corporation, enhancements to Development Bank Ghana’s guarantee schemes, the GESO facility for agribusiness and efforts to mobilise long-term domestic savings – including more than GH¢100billion in pension assets – for productive investment.

Mrs. Asante-Asiedu also urged market participants to avoid speculative foreign exchange activity, citing the losses incurred by investors who accumulated foreign currency positions during the 2024 period of volatility only to see the cedi stage one of the world’s strongest recoveries in 2025.

Atta Yeboah Gyan, Deputy Managing Director of Fidelity Bank Ghana, agreed the macroeconomic indicators point to a recovery but argued that underlying structural weaknesses remain evident.

He cited real GDP growth of 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, inflation of 3.4 percent in April 2026 and gross international reserves of US$13.9billion, equivalent to 5.5 months of import cover. However, he noted that the cedi has depreciated by approximately 10 percent against the US dollar this year, while the oil and gas sector contracted 23 percent in 2025.

He also highlighted what he described as a disconnect between economic activity and financial sector support. Although agriculture expanded by 6.8 percent in 2025 and helped drive a trade surplus of US$5.28billion by April 2026, the sector’s non-performing loan ratio stood at 54.7 percent in February.

“There is a fundamental mismatch between where our export strength comes from and where our credit is going,” he said.

Mr. Gyan argued that part of the problem lies in conventional lending models that fail to capture the realities of Ghana’s economy, leaving many smallholder farmers, informal businesses and creative enterprises effectively excluded from formal finance. He also pointed to lingering effects of the banking sector clean-up and Domestic Debt Exchange Programme, both of which continue to affect confidence across the financial system.

He cited Fidelity Bank’s own experience as evidence that alternative approaches can work. Through the Mastercard Foundation’s BRIDGE-in Agriculture programme, the bank disbursed GH¢66.9million in 2025 – supporting more than 22,000 smallholder farmers and helping create or sustain over 24,000 jobs. Through the Orange Corners Innovation Fund, it disbursed GH¢9.83million to more than 55 young entrepreneurs across sectors including agribusiness, technology, fashion and the creative industries.

Mr. Gyan called for a coordinated risk-sharing framework for agricultural lending, faster adoption of alternative credit assessment models based on digital transaction data and greater recognition of patient capital and blended finance as strategic development tools.

Dr. George Baah-Danquah, Director of Finance at GoldBod, argued that commodity-backed financing offers Ghana a more sustainable path to reserve accumulation than debt-funded borrowing.

GoldBod generated US$10.855billion in foreign exchange earnings from gold exports in 2025, up from US$4.616billion in 2024, while export volumes increased from 63.6 tonnes to 103.8 tonnes.

According to Dr. Baah-Danquah, the agency spent approximately US$214million to generate more than US$10billion in foreign exchange, compared with an estimated US$3.84billion in interest payments incurred on US$21.7billion borrowed between 2017 and 2024 to support reserve accumulation.

“Ghana does not have to choose between growth and fiscal responsibility. Gold-backed finance delivers both,” he said.

Under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy, the country is targetting 15 months of import cover by 2028, compared with approximately 5.7 months currently.

Dr. Baah-Danquah said high global gold prices present a unique opportunity to accelerate reserve growth. He outlined plans including expansion of the Ghana Gold Token programme, exchange-traded products linked to gold and a digital asset custody framework operating under the VASP Act 2025. He also called for a formal coordination mechanism involving GoldBod, the Bank of Ghana, Securities and Exchange Commission, Ministry of Finance and National Pensions Regulatory Authority.

Representing headline sponsor Ecobank, Regina Ofori, Head-Marketing and Branding, said stronger coordination across the financial sector will be essential to sustaining the recovery and mobilising long-term capital.

Drawing on Ecobank’s pan-African experience, she highlighted the role of syndicated finance, trade solutions, Treasury advisory services and cross-border liquidity management in supporting investment and economic transformation. “Fragmentation weakens outcomes. Coordination strengthens them,” she said.

She identified pension funds and insurance assets as underutilised sources of long-term capital and signalled interest in commodity-backed financing structures as part of a broader collaboration agenda.

Opening the summit, Dr. Godwin Acquaye, Chief Executive Officer-Business & Financial Times, argued that Ghana’s next phase of economic development will depend on strengthening three foundations: trust, capital and stability.

“Without trust, savings remain under mattresses. Without capital, businesses cannot expand. Without stability, investors will not commit long-term resources,” he said.

Dr. Acquaye called for a broader financial ecosystem that extends beyond conventional banking to include commodity-backed finance, community banking, digital finance, pension funds and capital markets.

He noted that community banks currently serve more than 7.5 million customers through over 850 branches nationwide, while commodity-backed financing has already demonstrated its viability through transactions in both the cocoa and mining sectors.

“The challenge before us is not merely how to grow the economy, but how to mobilise domestic capital, deepen financial inclusion and restore confidence in our institutions,” he said.

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